These research notes are provided as-is and contain supplementary working research.

Analysis

Passenger silence is expected in the 1639-41 Great-Migration tail

The absence of a passenger record for John's crossing is what Great-Migration timing predicts. His arrival is bounded to 1638-early 1641, the tail of a migration that crested in 1638 and fell off sharply after 1640; and named Boston-area passenger lists survive far worse for 1639-mid-1641 - the window most likely to hold his crossing - than for the earlier peak years, the surviving evidence there being ship-arrival notices and clearance licences with passenger counts but no names. A man arriving then would very often leave no listed name even under perfect record-keeping, so his absence from the surviving lists is the expected outcome of poor list survival, not evidence about his party or origin.

Confidence: Moderate-high

Why this conclusion

Qualifications and conflicts

Sources

Topic file location: Origin — migration and reception network

Relationship map

Technical details
  • Research item: G13-RI-000089
  • Graph revision: 244
  • Machine-readable JSON: /assets/g13-graph/findings/G13-RI-000089.json

This is one research item from the John Gurney research graph; the fuller narrative treatment is in the linked topic above and the research library.